Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
